In a new report on outsourcing, Forrester predicts that job losses will remain a political lightning rod, and the potential for bad PR “will force more companies underground and into an offshore ‘witness-protection program.’”

Forrester Research has revised upwards its previous — and controversial — 2002 year end projection that 3.3 million high-tech and computer-related jobs will flee U.S. shores by 2015.
In a new report, the company validates its figures, saying 3.4 million will leave by 2011, and offers more insight into near-term trends. By 2005, it says, an additional 240,000 jobs will have left the United States, bringing the total to a cumulative 830,000 positions lost in the near term.

Since the first report surfaced, along with similar estimates by other consulting firms, the business environment has changed in the United States. The economy has begun to climb out of the onerous recession of the last three and a half years. Also, unemployment appears to trending down following its sharp — indeed, near unprecedented — increase during the same time period. In short, outsourcing is unlikely to be the hot political button it was even six months ago.

Ironically, Forrester notes that the outcry prompted in part by its statistics led to a greater awareness of the efficiencies to be gained from outsourcing. “Instead of squelching activity, the increased press and savings have spurred senior executives to ask, ‘What is our offshore strategy?’” the report says.

New Geopolitical Risks

However, the geopolitical situation has not swung decidedly in favor of outsourcing. Increased international tensions are likely to make the issue more problematic. Events in Iraq have won the U.S. few friends abroad and could have a serious effect on business relations. “An escalation of tensions between India and Pakistan or a souring of U.S./China relations would limit access to key offshore labor pools,” the report says.

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